Thursday, February 21, 2008

Weather And Medicine

OK you ask...what does the weather have to do with medicine, or what does medicine have to do with the weather? Well aside from the aches and pains older folks get when the weather gets cold or wet or from the somewhat debatable belief that we get sick more easily when exposed to cold or wet weather, here is my take on the matter....

A weather forecast is really an opinion. it is neither right nor wrong until it either happens or does not happen, and even then there can be varying degrees of right or wrong. (Example, the temperature may be right but we got 8 inches of snow instead of 3).

Still don't see where this is going? OK let me get to the point. If you go the doctor and he says you have a horrible disease or need major surgery, you probably want to get a "second opinion". The second doctor will look at the same x-rays and/or test results, maybe order some additional work, and then may give you a different opinion on your condition. It can be very much the same with the weather. Give 4 meteorologists the same set of data and you may get 4 different forecasts! This can be very confusing to some people as you might watch one TV station and see a forecast for 5 inches of snow and then listen to the radio and hear a forecast for rain. This is one reason that I have displayed forecasts, or links to different forecasts, on this site...so you can get a "second (or third) opinion". The majority of the time, the forecasts will likely be quite similar. They may often differ the most on extreme or unusual weather events. At these times there are usually many complicating factors going into the forecast, and each meteorologist may weigh a different factor more heavily than another.

I leave it up to you to judge, over time, the accuracy and dependability of each forecast, hoping that mine ranks at or near the top.

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