Monday, November 23, 2008 Forecast Issued 5 A.M.

YOU'VE BEEN ASKING FOR IT, HERE IT IS...MY WINTER FORECAST!

THIS IS ALSO AVAILABLE ONLINE AT
http://www.weather16801.com/winter0809.html

The forecast for this winter is more difficult than average because
of a lack of any strong indications from the atmosphere and
especially from water temperature patterns in the Pacific as to how
large-scale undulations in the jet stream will set up. In other words
there is no strong el nino or la Nina going on. Therefore I am going
by what I call 'periodic oscillations" in temperature and factoring
in that the water off the East Coast in the Atlantic has been
slightly warmer than average. So here we go.....

Obviously we are already off to a cold start and I think that we will
remain colder than average most of the time right through December
and maybe into early January. In fact the coldest weather of the
entire winter may occur sometime in December. This may include a
stretch of days on which temperatures get no higher than the teens or
maybe even single digits. As we head toward the later part of January
I think temperatures will moderate back to or maybe a little above
normal. (Keep in mind, though, that normal temperatures are at their
lowest in mid to late January). February should then be normal or a
little above in the temperature department...sort of like an extended
"January thaw". I believe that there will then be another period of
colder than normal weather as we head into Spring, probably in March
into April. Overall I think the period from December through February
will average 1-2 degrees below normal, but most of the cold relative
to normal comes in December and most of the "warmth" relative to
normal comes in February.

As far as precipitation and snowfall are concerned, I do not see
anything too out of the ordinary, so I am predicting near-normal
precipitation and slightly above-average snowfall (to go along with
the colder temperatures resulting in a higher ratio of snow to rain
than would otherwise occur). I do think there will be at least two
fairly heavy snow events of at least 6-8 inches, and one of them will
probably occur in December. Several other small to moderate events of
between 2 and 5 inches are probable.

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